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Fuel price increases in June as Middle East tensions escalate

Posted: Tuesday, July 8th, 2025

Three months of falling pump prices have ended abruptly with tensions in the Middle East causing the average cost of petrol to rise by 2p last month, according to new analysis of RAC Fuel Watch data.

Unleaded now costs 134.17p a litre on average, up 2p since 1 June, meaning the cost to fill a 55-litre family car stands at £73.79 (£1.07 more than at the start of the month).

The diesel price increased even more – by nearly 3p (2.8p) a litre, from 138.39p at the start to 141.21p at the end. This added £1.55 to the household's cost to fill a family car.

Supermarket prices saw below-average increases last month, with petrol up 1.3p from 128.96p to 130.26p and diesel rising by 1.6p from 135.06p to 136.67p.

But once again, drivers in Northern Ireland benefit from the cheapest forecourt visits—a litre of unleaded there costs 128p on average, around 6p less than the average across the UK, with diesel at 134p.

The primary reason drivers paid more at the pumps was the price of a barrel of oil, which jumped from around $64 in late May to a high of almost $79 on 19 June, following escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

Fears that Iran—one of the world’s biggest oil-producing nations—might block oil exports along the Strait of Hormuz on its southern coast injected uncertainty into the market, pushing oil prices up.

However, contrary to what some analysts predicted, the oil price has since fallen and ended the month at $67, only a few dollars more than it was at the start of June.

The RAC hopes pump prices will stabilise, meaning drivers don’t see any further immediate increases at forecourts this month. But much depends on the level of margin retailers decide to take on the fuel they sell to drivers.

This is a concern as the Competition and Markets Authority’s latest report into the sector, published on Monday, once again called out high retailer margins and a lack of competition as reasons why pump prices aren’t lower.

RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams said: “July will be a telling month – will retailers halt further price rises, or even cut them if wholesale costs continue to slide? Or will drivers be stuck having to pay an elevated amount for the foreseeable future? This is particularly topical given it was only two days ago that the Competition and Markets Authority noted how weak competition within the fuel retailing market is.

“Thankfully, we’re a long way off the record pump prices of exactly three years ago – when the Russia/Ukraine conflict saw the average price of unleaded hit an unprecedented 191.53p a litre and diesel climb to 199.21p, with some retailers charging well more than £2 a litre.”

 

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