Downturn in Builders Merchants’ sales in Q3 highlights growing pessimism

BMF doesn’t see any “significant growth” until the second half of 2026, when interest rates are likely to be lower

After two positive quarters, figures released in the latest BMF Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) show a slight decline in sales performance in the third quarter. 

The downturn underscores growing pessimism within the sector about future market activity for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. 

Looking at the quarter as a whole, year-on-year total value sales in Q3 2025 were marginally lower than the same period in 2024.

With no difference in trading days between the two periods, Total Builders Merchants' value sales in Q3 2025 were -0.1% lower than Q3 2024. Volume sales increased by 0.7%, but prices decreased by 0.8%.

Value sales increased in eight of 12 product categories, led by Renewables and Water Management, which increased by 6.0%. 

Timber and Joinery Products, the second-largest category, increased by 2.1%, outperforming the total market. Still, the largest category, Heavy Building Materials, at -1.7%, was one of four categories to underperform, with volume and average price down by -0.4% and -1.3%, respectively. 

John Newcomb, CEO of the BMF, said: “This proved to be a difficult quarter, with concerns about the UK economic outlook and high levels of uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget limiting growth. 

“Unfortunately, the budget didn’t provide the hoped-for incentives to spark the housing market. While we expect conditions to improve in 2026, significant growth is unlikely until the second half of the year, when interest rates are expected to be lower.”